FBI Targets Polymarket CEO After Trump Prediction

• Betting platform Polymarket is reported to be under investigation after the FBI raided the home of the CEO and confiscated electronic devices. 
• The CEO believes that this action is a “last ditch effort” by the current administration as he suspects this to be politically motivated.

The FBI is reported to have raided the home of the 26-year-old Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in the early morning of Wednesday, confiscating his phone and electronics. According to reports, this is related to the accurate prediction of Donald Trump’s re-election into the presidency.

Being reported that the FBI raided Polymarket founders home this morning & seized his phone and electronics. They gave him no reason. Polymarket predicted Trump would win. This looks like political retribution and is actually bone chilling. WTF is this administration doing. pic.twitter.com/QaBKrSNA2x— RYAN SΞAN ADAMS – rsa.eth 🦄 (@RyanSAdams) November 13, 2024

Background of the Story

Our research shows that Polymarket had the odds of Trump’s victory hovering around 58%. Fascinatingly, this steadily climbed in the night and reached 95% at 11:43 p.m., just six hours before the Associated Press called the election. Meanwhile, Trump led his close competitor with odds around 67% on Polymarket a month before the election. Interestingly, a French trader identified as “Theo” placed a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and made $46 million from that.

In the early morning of Wednesday, Coplan reportedly disclosed on X that Trump’s campaign team became aware of their victory through Polymarket’s prediction. To create the awareness that his site is the most accurate in terms of election prediction, Coplan labeled the results a “vindication” of its earlier prediction.

Announcing the raid, the Polymarket CEO posted on X on Wednesday evening: “ New phone, who dis?” Later, he called the authorities out, for going after companies suspected to be linked to political opponents.

It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents. We are deeply committed to being non-partisan, and today is no different, but the incumbents should do some self-reflecting and recognize that taking a more pro-business, pro-startup approach may be what would have changed their fate this election.

In addition to this, Coplan called this a “political retribution” while claiming that his company is fully transparent.

This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket is a fully transparent prediction market that helps everyday people better understand the events that matter most to them, including elections.

Coinbase CEO Takes a Dig at the DoJ, Supports Polymarket

According to outspoken Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, the action of the US Department of Justice (DoJ) seems to be politically motivated. Per his observation, this could inadvertently strengthen the platform rather than break it. Similarly, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has defended the platform, claiming its operations are part of “political speech”. This implies that Polymarket is supported by the First Amendment.

According to our research, making bets and predictions on Polymarket in the US is not permitted. Meanwhile, a recent announcement hints that it could soon resume operations in the country.

Polymarket paid a fine of $1.4 million to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 for failing to secure the appropriate licenses for its operation as we earlier disclosed. In France, multiple reports have hinted that authorities could ban the betting platform due to unlicensed gambling services. An undisclosed insider from the French gambling regulator is also reported to have said:

Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.

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