Coinbase calls CFTC proposal against prediction markets economically unsound

On Aug 9, 2024

Coinbase has urged the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to withdraw a proposal that could affect prediction markets like Polymarket, according to an Aug. 8 letter.

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, criticized the proposal for its broad and unclear definition of “gaming” and its assertion that “gaming” contracts are against the public interest.

Coinbase contends that the proposal exceeds the Commission’s statutory authority and deviates from the standard practice of evaluating contracts individually.

The firm also argued that the proposal was economically unsound. Grewal pointed out that the CFTC’s proposal fails to recognize the positive economic impact of prediction markets and lacks evidence to substantiate claims that these markets could harm investors.

The letter stated:

“The Proposal questions their scientific merit and highlights their potential to harm investors, but without citing evidence to support these conclusions.

Consequently, Coinbase called on the CFTC to either withdraw or revise the proposal to support responsible innovation rather than broadly categorizing all event contracts as gaming.

Coinbase asserted:

“We firmly believe that this all-or-nothing approach to the treatment of event contracts is not consistent with the promotion of responsible innovation and growth in regulated, transparent markets with appropriate safeguards to protect market integrity and protect customers.”

Coinbase’s move gained significant support from the crypto community, with CoinFund President Chris Perkins urging the CFTC to “stop suppressing innovation and truth.” He added that these platforms are not against the public interest, noting that they provide essential datasets that benefit the public.

Prediction markets’ popularity soar

Meanwhile, the crypto community’s defense of prediction markets comes as these platforms have gained significant popularity during the past year, particularly in betting on events like the 2024 US presidential election.

Platforms such as Polymarket have seen substantial activity, with over $1 billion in total betting volume and over $550 million in bets on the outcome of the US election alone.

In response to this surge, the CFTC proposed in May to restrict specific event contracts, especially those related to political events, citing concerns over market integrity and public interest.

Notably, some lawmakers led by Senator Elizabeth Warren recently supported the regulator’s move while criticizing the “commodification” of US elections.