Ross Ulbricht Polymarket Pardon Odds At 95% On Musk Comment

Polymarket odds that US President Donald Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht within his first 100 days in office have surged to 95% following a recent comment by billionaire Tesla founder Elon Musk.

“Ross will be freed too,” Musk said in a Jan. 21 reply to a post on X.

Ross will be freed too

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 21, 2025

Shortly after Musk’s reply, the decentralized prediction platform saw Ulbricht’s pardon odds surge from 54%. Bettors on Polymarket now place the odds of the Silk Road founder receiving a pardon from Trump at 95%.

The bet regarding the potential pardon for Ross Ulbricht reached a volume of more than $5.27 million.

Silk Road Founder Sentenced To Life In Prison

The bet on Ross Ulbricht receiving a pardon from Trump comes after the Silk Road founder was arrested in 2013 and sentenced to life in prison in 2015 without the possibility of parole. He was convicted for creating and running what became the most popular dark web marketplace at the time that allowed users to sell illegal products, primarily drugs. The platform used Bitcoins for transactions to maintain anonymity. 

Many believed Ulbricht’s sentence was too long for the crime. His supporters collected over 600,000 signatures on freeross.org requiring Ross Ulbricht’s clemency. Among those who signed the petition are Bitcoin holders who support Silk Road’s idea.

Trump’s Promise To Pardon Ulbricht

Last May, Trump first promised to pardon Ulbricht during a campaign at the Libertarian National Convention. 

“If you vote for me, on Day 1, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served,” Trump said, adding, “He’s already served 11 years, we’re gonna get him home.”

Despite his strong pro-crypto-oriented campaign, the US President made no official statement regarding Ulbricht or digital asset policies. 

However, Musk’s post on X increased the odds of Ulbricht’s release. Angela McArdle, chair of the Libertarian National Committee, also mentioned that a pardon for Ulbricht was being planned.

Meanwhile, Ulbricht distanced himself from any cryptocurrency or meme coin using his name. He posted on X that there is no official “Ross coin.”

Roger Ver, an early Bitcoin investor and a supporter of Bitcoin cash, also has a Polymarket pardon bet. Ver was charged with tax fraud last April, and the market currently sees a 32% chance that he will receive a pardon within the first 100 days of Trump entering the White House for his second term.

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